Latvia vs Slovenia, Monday’s match for the qualifying round, Group G, for the EURO 2020 Qualifiers, in the Daugava National Stadium, Riga.
The hosts started with three straight losses, but they intend to increase their campaign with a strong showing in this showdown. Meanwhile, Slovenia has work to do to win their qualification.
Latvia is already destined to fall short of qualifying. They failed to win any of their six games in the lower tier of the Nations League, which included two clashes with Andorra. Latvia finished tied with four points with Andorra, which suggests that they are lagging behind.
Slovenia is coming here with ambitions to qualify for the Euro, especially after losing in the playoffs in 2015. The team won four years ago, and will not play the playoffs this year after being relegated from the Nations League group.
Slovenia did not exactly take the competition seriously, with Jan Oblak out of the six games in their campaign. They fought without the Atlético Madrid goalkeeper who is back when Slovenia clinch a win in Riga this week.
Visitors were on the fight to reach Russia with their highest result coming in a 0-0 draw with England at home. They have achieved four wins while they will use that as they try to return to qualifying form for 2016. They have impressed to finish third in the England group, which is a result that could improve this year.
They are facing a Latvian team that lost 7 in 10 games in their last qualifying campaign. The hosts were beaten 3-0 by Israel and Georgia in their last two games here while losing 8 of their last 12 games at home, including facing opponents on their own level in the Nations League and friendly games.
This points to Latvia’s domestic problems, so I am supporting a victory for Slovenia in this meeting. My bet is 2 -0.75AH.