Betting sites odds
Actually, we’re talking about what we call the “expected value” of a sporting event and how a bookmaker sets its respective odds.
And what does it mean? It means that, sometimes, odds set by bookies do not match the real probabilities associated with certain outcomes.
Good odds: that’s what we’re looking for and that’s what we get every time an odd associated with a certain outcome is higher than it should be (every time an odd gives you the possibility of making more money than usual).
Find the best odds
Providing a quick example is the best way to clarify this question. Imagine a Portuguese League Cup – which is, so to speak, a lesser competition in such country – match between SL Benfica and SC Braga.
Given that the Portuguese League is coming to a close, many players won’t play for Benfica, because their coach is trying to manage their physical condition since other matches are yet to come.
Braga, on the other hand, will be at their best. So, the system that bookies usually use to set their odds will follow the “common” indicators, by analyzing the “theoretical” probabilities of the outcome of such match, therefore Benfica will be favourites.
In fact, however, since many players will be left out, Benfica’s chances of winning the match are much lower than the odds suggest. Braga will have a better chance of not losing the match than they would on a normal day.
Studying and analysing matches and competitions
In this context, a competent bettor should be able to analyze a situation in accordance with his or her knowledge and spot a good chance to bet on a higher-than-average odd.
All this process is known among bettors as calculating correct odds, which, ultimately, are the real probabilities of certain outcomes in a given sporting event – the automatic calculation systems used by bookies to set odds do not take into consideration “exceptional” circumstances and end up failing.
It’s up to bettors to make money out of that shortcoming, although there is, as usual, the presence of a certain degree of risk. In this particular example, Benfica ended up winning the match; since they were losing at halftime, their coach chose to send in two major players, who ended up scoring the victory goals (with the help of a terrible movement by Braga’s goalkeeper).
A real bettor… Find the best odds
So, if a bettor cannot spot good betting opportunities, then he or she will either lose money in the short run or simply be unable to accomplish his or her long-term goals.
Nonetheless, there is something we must pay attention to, above all things: finding value bets does not necessarily mean that you’ll be successful. It simply means that you can identify unique opportunities to bet successfully, by taking advantage of the shortcomings of bookies.
This article is not trying to provide you with complex, flawed calculus formulas; on the contrary, it’s trying to tell you how important it is to be aware of opportunities, to study, to know a lot about a particular sport, so you can find the best odds.
In case you need any help in your search for the best odds on the market, there is always someone who can give you a hand – visit www.oddschecker.com and www.betbrain.com and see for yourself how helpful these services can be.